Click here for a pdf of the complete 2021 guide.
Since the last edition of this guide was published in 2019, a number of developments have underscored the urgent need to rid the world of nuclear weapons. At the same time, entry into force of a historic international treaty has brought us a vital step closer towards achieving that goal.
Heightened nuclear risk
2020 began with “World War III” trending on social media, following the US assassination of Iran’s most powerful military commander, Qasem Soleimani, on January 3. Since then, tensions between the two nations have remained worryingly high. The US has repeatedly flown nuclear-capable B-52 bombers along Iran’s border and Iran has resumed enriching uranium to levels beyond those agreed under the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (Iran Nuclear Deal).[1]
May 2020 saw the beginning of deadly clashes between Indian and Chinese forces in a disputed region of the western Himalayas. A military stand-off between the nuclear-armed nations continued throughout the year. While both India and China say that they have a no-first-use policy regarding nuclear weapons, there is a risk that a war between the two nations would lead to a nuclear exchange.[2] Millions of civilians would be killed by the immediate effects of such a conflict. Millions more would be endangered by the climactic consequences that would follow.[3]
Later in the year it was revealed that the US National Nuclear Security Administration, which maintains the country’s nuclear weapons stockpile, had been subjected to a sophisticated cyber-attack.[4] Experts have repeatedly warned about the vulnerability of nuclear weapons systems to hacking and the potential for this to lead to nuclear weapons use.[5]
Then, in March 2021, the UK government announced that it would increase the number of nuclear warheads in its stockpile by up to 44%. The shocking decision, set out in the integrated defence review,[6] reverses 30 years of warhead reductions, violates the UK’s disarmament obligations under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and threatens to escalate the nuclear arms race.[7] The integrated review also lowers the threshold for nuclear weapons use, stating that the UK may use nuclear weapons in response to an attack using “emerging technologies” if that attack could have a comparable impact to a nuclear attack.[8]
It seems that these decisions were made with little regard for the catastrophic consequences of nuclear weapons use. As Scientists for Global Responsibility warned, “launching the warheads carried by just one Trident submarine would be more than enough to cause a catastrophic ‘nuclear winter’ threatening human civilisation as we know it”.[9]
Security, not WMD
If these developments reminded us of the dangers that we face as long as nuclear weapons exist, other key events have demonstrated the futility of nuclear arsenals in the face of the most serious threats to our security.
Early in 2020, the Covid-19 virus began to spread rapidly around the world. By the end of the year more than 80 million people had contracted the virus and nearly two million had died as a result.
The pandemic has highlighted the warped priorities of governments that spend vast amounts of taxpayer money on weapons of mass destruction, while health and social care services are under-resourced. In the UK, where the government spends around £7 billion a year on nuclear weapons,[10] a shortage of critical care beds and ventilators put the lives of patients at risk. Medical staff and care-home workers were forced to care for Covid sufferers without adequate personal protective equipment, putting their own lives at risk.
As the pandemic raged, the climate emergency continued apace. Greenhouse house gas concentrations in the atmosphere remained at record high levels, despite a temporary decline caused by a reduction in travel and economic activity during the Covid-related lockdowns.[11] 2020 was the joint hottest year on record.[12]
Nuclear weapons cannot protect us from a deadly virus, nor from the catastrophic impacts of climate change. In fact, nuclear arsenals act as a drain on resources that could be directed towards measures that address these threats.[13] The UK government’s announcement of a nuclear warhead increase came shortly after nurses had been offered a pay rise of just 1%, causing widespread outrage.
Nuclear weapons are banned
Thankfully, only a minority of states cling to the myth that nuclear weapons make the world safer. In 2017, 122 states adopted the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. The treaty received its fiftieth ratification in October 2020 and entered into force on 22 January 2021. All the nuclear weapons activities covered by the treaty, including development, production, testing, use and threat of use, are now prohibited under international law (see section 1.2).
The treaty has increased the financial risks associated with investing in nuclear weapons (see section 1.3). As a result, more and more investors are choosing to exclude nuclear weapons producers from their portfolios.[14]
This report highlights the Scottish organisations that continue to invest in nuclear weapons producers, despite the humanitarian, environmental and financial risks. It contains guidance and resources for anyone who wants to take action on divestment.
By taking a few simple steps, you will be helping to advance the ultimate goal of the nuclear ban treaty: the total elimination of nuclear weapons.
NOTES
[1] Iran had agreed to limit uranium enrichment to 3.67% purity under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) but resumed enrichment to 20% in January 2021. The US withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018.
[2] https://carnegieendowment.org/2020/10/29/after-border-clash-will-china-india-competition-go-nuclear-pub-83072.
[3] See section 3.3.2 of Don’t Bank on the Bomb Scotland’s report, Nuclear Weapons, the Climate and Our Environment: https://nukedivestmentscotland.org/climate-consequences-of-nuclear-war/.
[4] https://www.politico.com/news/2020/12/17/nuclear-agency-hacked-officials-inform-congress-447855.
[5] See ICAN’s briefing paper: https://www.icanw.org/briefing_emerging_technologies_and_nuclear_weapon_risks and P Ingram, Hacking UK Trident: A Growing Threat (BASIC, May 2017): https://basicint.org/publications/stanislav-abaimov-paul-ingram-executive-director/2017/hacking-uk-trident-growing-threat.
[6] Global Britain in a Competitive Age: the Integrated Review of Security, Defence, Development and Foreign Policy (March 2021): https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/global-britain-in-a-competitive-age-the-integrated-review-of-security-defence-development-and-foreign-policy.
[7] See, eg, Hans Kristensen, “British Defense Review Ends Nuclear Reductions Era”: https://fas.org/blogs/security/2021/03/british-defense-review-2021/.
[8] See p 77 of the Integrated Review: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/global-britain-in-a-competitive-age-the-integrated-review-of-security-defence-development-and-foreign-policy.
[9] See https://www.sgr.org.uk/resources/brexit-britain-s-security-policy-cutting-aid-spend-weapons and P Webber and S Parkinson, UK nuclear weapons: a catastrophe in the making? (SGR, September 2015): https://www.sgr.org.uk/publications/uk-nuclear-weapons-catastrophe-making.
[10] See Enough is Enough: 2019 Global Nuclear Weapons Spending (ICAN, 2020): https://tinyurl.com/y7ngqkee.
[11] https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/united-science-report-climate-change-has-not-stopped-covid19.
[12] The global average surface temperature of Earth in 2020 tied with 2016 as the warmest year on record: https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/2020-tied-for-warmest-year-on-record-nasa-analysis-shows.
[13] See ICAN’s comparison of nuclear weapons spending and healthcare costs: https://www.icanw.org/healthcare_costs and section 1 of Don’t Bank on the Bomb Scotland’s report, Nuclear Weapons, the Climate and Our Environment (L Pearson, 2020): https://nukedivestmentscotland.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/nwce-report-final-1.pdf.
[14] M Beenes, Beyond the Bomb: Global Exclusion of Nuclear Weapons Producers (PAX, 2019): https://www.paxforpeace.nl/publications/all-publications/beyond-the-bomb.
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